1.  Vlãduş, A., N. Nikolova and M. Licurici: Evaluation of thermal continentality within southern Romania and northern Bulgaria (1961-2015).

The assessment of continentality and oceanity of the climate at a global level or within particular regions has lately gained in importance on the background of global warming and its impact on food and water resources. Aiming at understanding these influences, there were analysed the spatial distribution (based on the data from 27 meteorological stations) and temporal variability of four indices (for 19 meteorological stations with complete data series covering the interval 1961-2015). In specialized literature, there are used different continentality and oceanity indices. We studied four of them, but the results indicate that three of these are redundant, as they deliver almost the same information. Consequently, only the results based on Gorczyñski Continentality Index (GCI) and Kerner Oceanity Index (KOI) are presented and discussed in greater detail. These indices emphasize the continental character of the climate in the region, except for a narrow strip along the Black Sea Coast, which displays a maritime climate. There did not emerge a clear intensification of continentality (the trends were not statistically significant), in spite of the increase of air temperature in the region during the last two decades. However, a good correlation was obtained between three of the analysed indices (GCI, II and KOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI).

Keywords: thermal continentality, Johansson Continentality Index (JCI), Ivanov Index of Thermic Continentality (II), Kerner Oceanity Index (KOI), Marsz Oceanity Index (OI), Romania, Bulgaria

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2.  Kendzierski, S., B. Czernecki, L. Kolendowicz and A. Jaczewski: Air temperature forecasts' accuracy of selected short-term and long-term numerical weather prediction models over Poland.

The article discusses the results of air temperature forecasts from four short-term and two long-term forecasts of numerical weather prediction models. The analysis covered the results of model simulations from January 2015 to January 2016 and compared them at 14 meteorological stations in Poland. The comparison was made based on the most commonly used measures for continuous parameters i.e., ME (mean error), MAE (mean absolute error), RMSE (root mean square error), MSE (mean square error), BIAS and Pearson correlation. In the short time horizon, the best results in the context of the MAE, RMSE, MSE and correlation values were obtained by the Unified Model, although the diagnosed differences between the models are small. All models in the 0-72 h projection horizon reached a correlation of 0.95-0.97 and an MAE in the range of 1.5 °C to 2.1 °C. In the case of long-term forecasts, the HIRLAM model was slightly better than the GFS model. Clearly, in both cases, there is a marked decrease in quality after the fourth and in the following forecast lead days.

Keywords: verification, weather forecast, numerical weather prediction, NWP, long-term forecast, short-term forecast, air temperature, Poland

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3.  Sridevi, C., A. Kumar, K. K. Singh, V. R. Durai and P. Suneetha: Rainfall forecast skill of Global Forecasting System (GFS) model over India during summer monsoon 2015.

The Indian summer monsoon is one of the most important phenomenon that bring vital rain to India, so the Indian summer monsoon forecast and its verification is always of great interest and it effects India's agriculture. In the present study the categorical (Yes/No) and quantitative verification of rainfall forecast of the Global Forecasting System model running at India Meteorological Department, i.e., IMD GFS T574 (25 km resolution) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction, NCEP GFST1534 is done over Indian domain against 0.25° gridded rainfall observations during summer monsoon season 2015. A detailed verification study for rainfall forecast at 0.25° × 0.25° grid for Indian Window (0-40 °N and 60-100 °E) is conducted using two models output; both the / models are indicating that skill of the rainfall forecast is good for all parts of the country except high terrain regions. Regional verification also carried over 5 homogeneous regions of India, i.e., North India, West Coast India, North East India, Central India and Peninsular India using both model outputs. Results show that, in general, both the GFS T1534 and GFS T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The results documented are expected to be useful to the operational forecasters in day-to-day weather forecasting over Indian monsoon regions.

Keywords: GFS T1534L64, T574L64, NWP, global model, rainfall analysis, Indian summer monsoon, rainfall prediction skill, forecast verification

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4.  Kiºi, Ö., C. A. G. Santos, R. M. da Silva and M. Zounemat-Kermani: Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using ªen's innovative trend method.

Trend analysis of monthly mean streamflows is essential for better water resources management and planning. In this study, Mann Kendall (MK), Sen's method and ªen's innovative trend method (ITM) were employed in order to examine the possible trends of monthly streamflows obtained from nine stations from three basins (Yakabasi and Derecikviran in Western Black Sea Basin; Durucasu, Sütlüce, Kale and Gomeleonu in Yesilirmak Basin; ªimºirli, Tozköy and Topluca in Eastern Black Sea Basin) located in Black Sea Region of Turkey. Based on the MK, streamflow data of Tozköy Station which is located in western part of the Eastern Black Sea Region showed a significantly increasing trend while a significantly decreasing trend was found for the Yakabasi, Derecikviran, Durucasu and Sütlüce stations which are situated in western part of the Black Sea Region. According to the Sen's trend method, a significantly decreasing trend was seen in Durucasu, Sütlüce, Yakabasi and Derecikviran stations while Tozköy station showed significantly increasing trend. According to the ITM, low-medium values of Tozköy Station indicated slightly increasing trend while low and medium streamflow values of Yakabasi, Derecikviran, Durucasu and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend. High streamflow values of Derecikviran and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend while corresponding values of Yakabasi, ªimºirli and Tozköy stations indicated an increasing trend. It was showed that trends of low, medium, and high data can be easily identified by ITM which has some advantages (having no assumption such as serial relationship, non-normality, and, test number) over the Sen's method and Mann-Kendall test.

Keywords: monthly mean streamflows, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall, Sen's method, innovative trend method

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5.  Ivanèiæ, I., D. Herak, M. Herak, I. Allegretti, T. Fiket, K. Kuk, S. Marku¹iæ, S. Prevolnik, I. Soviæ, I. Dasoviæ and J. Stipèeviæ: Seismicity of Croatia in the period 2006-2015.

During the ten-year period from 2006 to 2015 a total of 36 733 earthquakes were located in Croatia and its surrounding areas, with 37 main events registering magnitudes from 4.0 to 4.9. Seismically the most active was the coastal part of Croatia confined to two seismically distinguished areas. The NW domain was seismically less active, with almost 10 000 located events (seven were of magnitude ML ≥ 4.0), among which were the three strongest events that occurred in Croatia during the observed period. Two of them occurred in the Senj epicentral area, the first one on 5 February 2007 at 8:30 UTC (L = 4.9, Imax = VII °MSK) and the second one on 30 July 2013 at 12:58 UTC, (ML = 4.8, Imax = VI °MSK). The third event occurred near Kornati Islands on 18 July 2007 at 10:54 UTC (ML = 4.8). The SE domain experienced the highest number of earthquakes (over 19 000 located events, with 24 events of magnitude ML ≥ 4.0, among which the strongest one was of magnitude ML = 4.9 with the epicentre in Bosnia and Herzegovina near the Croatian border). The seismicity in the continental part of Croatia was weak-to-moderate, with earthquakes of magnitudes ML ≤ 4.1. Focal mechanisms were obtained for 31 earthquakes with magnitudes ML ≥ 4.0, and individual earthquakes have also been macroseismically analysed. Low current moment release rates for both regions (continental and coastal) as compared to long-term averages, indicate the regions are currently in the strain accumulation phase.

Keywords: Croatia, fault-plane solutions, earthquake catalogue, macroseismic maps

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