1.
Vlãduş, A., N. Nikolova and M. Licurici: Evaluation of thermal continentality within southern Romania and northern
Bulgaria (1961-2015).
The assessment of continentality and oceanity of the climate at a global level or within particular regions has
lately gained in importance on the background of global warming and its impact on food and water resources. Aiming
at understanding these influences, there were analysed the spatial distribution (based on the data from 27
meteorological stations) and temporal variability of four indices (for 19 meteorological stations with complete
data series covering the interval 1961-2015). In specialized literature, there are used different continentality
and oceanity indices. We studied four of them, but the results indicate that three of these are redundant, as they
deliver almost the same information. Consequently, only the results based on Gorczyñski Continentality Index (GCI)
and Kerner Oceanity Index (KOI) are presented and discussed in greater detail. These indices emphasize the
continental character of the climate in the region, except for a narrow strip along the Black Sea Coast, which
displays a maritime climate. There did not emerge a clear intensification of continentality (the trends were not
statistically significant), in spite of the increase of air temperature in the region during the last two decades.
However, a good correlation was obtained between three of the analysed indices (GCI,
II and KOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index
(NAOI).
Keywords: thermal continentality, Johansson Continentality Index (JCI),
Ivanov Index of Thermic Continentality (II), Kerner Oceanity Index (KOI),
Marsz Oceanity Index (OI), Romania, Bulgaria [
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2.
Kendzierski, S., B. Czernecki, L. Kolendowicz and A. Jaczewski: Air temperature forecasts' accuracy of selected short-term
and long-term numerical weather prediction models over Poland.
The article discusses the results of air temperature forecasts from four short-term and two long-term forecasts of numerical weather prediction models. The analysis covered
the results of model simulations from January 2015 to January 2016 and compared them at 14 meteorological stations in Poland. The comparison was made based on the most commonly
used measures for continuous parameters i.e., ME (mean error), MAE (mean absolute error), RMSE (root mean square error), MSE (mean square error), BIAS and Pearson correlation.
In the short time horizon, the best results in the context of the MAE, RMSE, MSE and correlation values were obtained by the Unified Model, although the diagnosed differences
between the models are small. All models in the 0-72 h projection horizon reached a correlation of 0.95-0.97 and an MAE in the range of 1.5 °C to 2.1 °C. In the case of long-term
forecasts, the HIRLAM model was slightly better than the GFS model. Clearly, in both cases, there is a marked decrease in quality after the fourth and in the following forecast
lead days.
Keywords: verification, weather forecast, numerical weather prediction, NWP, long-term forecast, short-term forecast,
air temperature, Poland
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3.
Sridevi, C., A. Kumar, K. K. Singh, V. R. Durai and P. Suneetha: Rainfall forecast skill of Global Forecasting System (GFS) model over India during summer monsoon 2015.
The Indian summer monsoon is one of the most important phenomenon that bring vital rain to India, so the Indian summer monsoon forecast and its verification is always
of great interest and it effects India's agriculture. In the present study the categorical (Yes/No) and quantitative verification of rainfall forecast of the
Global Forecasting System model running at India Meteorological Department, i.e., IMD GFS T574 (25 km resolution) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction,
NCEP GFST1534 is done over Indian domain against 0.25° gridded rainfall observations during summer monsoon season 2015. A detailed verification study for
rainfall forecast at 0.25° × 0.25° grid for Indian Window (0-40 °N and 60-100 °E) is conducted using two models output; both the / models are indicating that skill
of the rainfall forecast is good for all parts of the country except high terrain regions. Regional verification also carried over 5 homogeneous regions of India,
i.e., North India, West Coast India, North East India,
Central India and Peninsular India using both model outputs. Results show that, in general, both the GFS T1534 and GFS T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically
heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The results documented are expected to be useful
to the operational forecasters in day-to-day weather forecasting over Indian monsoon regions.
Keywords: GFS T1534L64, T574L64, NWP, global model, rainfall analysis, Indian summer monsoon, rainfall prediction skill,
forecast verification
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4.
Kiºi, Ö., C. A. G. Santos, R. M. da Silva and M. Zounemat-Kermani: Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using ªen's innovative trend method.
Trend analysis of monthly mean streamflows is essential for better water resources management and planning. In this study, Mann Kendall (MK), Sen's
method and ªen's innovative trend method (ITM) were employed in order to examine the possible trends of monthly streamflows obtained from nine stations
from three basins (Yakabasi and Derecikviran in Western Black Sea Basin; Durucasu, Sütlüce, Kale and Gomeleonu in Yesilirmak Basin; ªimºirli, Tozköy
and Topluca in Eastern Black Sea Basin) located in Black Sea Region of Turkey. Based on the MK, streamflow data of Tozköy Station which is located in western
part of the Eastern Black Sea Region showed a significantly increasing trend while a significantly decreasing trend was found for the Yakabasi, Derecikviran,
Durucasu and Sütlüce stations which are situated in western part of the Black Sea Region. According to the Sen's trend method, a significantly
decreasing trend was seen in Durucasu, Sütlüce, Yakabasi and Derecikviran stations while Tozköy station showed significantly increasing trend. According
to the ITM, low-medium values of Tozköy Station indicated slightly increasing trend while low and medium streamflow values of Yakabasi, Derecikviran,
Durucasu and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend. High streamflow values of Derecikviran and Sütlüce stations showed a decreasing trend while
corresponding values of Yakabasi, ªimºirli and Tozköy stations indicated an increasing trend. It was showed that trends of low, medium, and high data can
be easily identified by ITM which has some advantages (having no assumption such as serial relationship, non-normality, and, test number) over the Sen's method
and Mann-Kendall test.
Keywords: monthly mean streamflows, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall, Sen's method, innovative trend method
[
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5.
Ivanèiæ, I., D. Herak, M. Herak, I. Allegretti, T. Fiket, K. Kuk, S. Marku¹iæ, S. Prevolnik, I. Soviæ, I. Dasoviæ and J. Stipèeviæ: Seismicity of Croatia in the period 2006-2015.
During the ten-year period from 2006 to 2015 a total of 36 733 earthquakes were located in Croatia and its surrounding areas, with 37 main events registering magnitudes
from 4.0 to 4.9. Seismically the most active was the coastal part of Croatia confined to two seismically distinguished areas. The NW domain was seismically less active,
with almost 10 000 located events (seven were of magnitude ML ≥ 4.0), among which were the three strongest events that occurred in Croatia during the
observed period. Two of them occurred in the Senj epicentral area, the first one on 5 February 2007 at 8:30 UTC (
Keywords: Croatia, fault-plane solutions, earthquake catalogue, macroseismic maps [
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